What I Heard at the 2026 Strategic Investment Conference — and What I Think It Means for You
Here's the second batch of notes from the May 2026 Strategic Investment Conference. This round leaned macro and political — five voices stood out: Peter Boockvar, Liz Ann Sonders, Michael Howell, Bruce Mehlman, and Danielle DiMartino Booth. None of this is a recommendation to do anything today; it's the long-haul thinking that shapes the decisions we make together. Here's what stuck.
1. There are really two economies — and the average hides the gap
Boockvar's image of the week: forget the "K-shaped economy" and picture a lowercase "i." The dot on top is the upper-income consumer, doing fine; the long stem below is everyone else. DiMartino Booth backed it up — 55% of Americans now say their finances are getting worse, a worse reading than during the 2008 crisis, and entry-level hiring is brutal (some job openings that drew 100 applicants in 2019 now draw 300). When you read that "the consumer is strong," remember much of that strength sits with the top 10% who own most of the stocks.
2. The whole economy is leaning on one big bet: AI
Roughly three-quarters of last quarter's growth came from technology and data-center spending. The big AI companies are on track to invest around $700 billion this year — and it's eating the cash machines investors love (Meta's free cash flow is set to fall from about $45 billion to $4 billion in a single year). Sonders framed AI as moving into its "cascade" phase, where the open question is who gets disrupted and who does the disrupting — and a reminder that the first mover doesn't always win. The takeaway: if you own an S&P 500 index fund, you're more exposed to this one bet than you may realize.
3. Inflation isn't finished — and that changes the rules for bonds and cash
This was the closest thing to a consensus. Howell and Boockvar argued the multi-decade bull market in bonds is over and that real assets — gold, commodities, real estate, and companies with genuine pricing power — are the hedges to own. DiMartino Booth pointed to the recent jump in gas prices as a statistically enormous shock now feeding into everyday goods, and Sonders wouldn't be surprised if the Fed doesn't cut rates at all this year. The cheap-money playbook of the 2010s may not be the playbook for the next decade, so real-asset exposure and the role your bonds play deserve a fresh look — not abandoning bonds but being deliberate about which ones and why.
4. The plumbing matters: hidden risks in private credit
A lot of lending has moved out of regulated banks into private investment funds — "shadow banking." DiMartino Booth flagged outright fraud in places (borrowers pledging the same collateral twice), losses in healthcare lending now larger than in software, and growing distress in commercial real estate. Howell added the backdrop: a wall of cheap pandemic-era debt has to be refinanced at much higher rates between now and 2030. These are slow-burn risks, not tomorrow's headlines — but a strong reason not to reach for an extra percent of yield in corners you can't see into.
5. Politics is now the weather — plan around it, don't react to it
Mehlman's point: "Throw the bums out" is the default mood, and change has become the norm — eleven of the thirteen federal elections this century were "change" elections. He expects the House to flip in the midterms, more gridlock after, and investigations aimed increasingly at the private sector, which translates into headline risk for individual companies. The goal isn't to trade around each headline — almost no one does that well — but to own a portfolio sturdy enough that you don't feel you have to.
6. The timeless part: have a plan, and don't confuse investing with gambling
Sonders had the wisdom worth keeping. The most important piece of a jigsaw puzzle, she says, is the picture on the box — have a plan, and understand the gap between your risk tolerance on paper and what you'll actually do when the market drops by 15%. She's also a believer in the unglamorous discipline of rebalancing — trimming what's run up and adding to what's lagged, which quietly forces you to "add low, trim high." Her sharpest line: "Investing is about owning. Gambling is about hoping." Owning a share of a real business puts the odds in your favor over time; a wager just makes you a spectator.
A genuine note of optimism
It wasn't all storm clouds. Both Sonders and DiMartino Booth were sincerely hopeful about AI's long-run promise — Sonders likening today's tools to a very capable intern whose work you still check, and DiMartino Booth lighting up about AI's potential to transform education and healthcare. The disruption is real, but so is the upside.
What this means for you (and what it doesn't)
I'm not telling you to panic (nor would we ever) — no speaker called for an imminent crash, and several expect markets to grind higher even as the backdrop gets more complicated. The takeaways: look past the averages, since "the economy" and your economy may differ; know what you actually own, especially your tech concentration; give inflation protection a fresh look; don't reach for yield you don't understand; and remember that behavior beats forecasting — the plan you make in calm waters is the one you lean on when things get choppy.
If any of this raises questions about your own situation, that's exactly the conversation I'm here for — I'd rather we talk one too many times than one too few. Call Aspire Planning Associates at (925) 938-2023 to schedule a conversation today.
Until next time,
Evor C. Vattuone, CFP®
